KC's editorial staff has contacted Chief of Informational and Analytical Service of the Caucasus Emirate, Movladi Udugov, with the request to comment on the latest events in Georgia and on the prospects of settling the situation in light of aggravation of tensions between Russia and the West, and the position of the Caucasus Emirate highlighted in the published statement issued by the Military Command of the Caucasus Emirate.
M. Udugov: "If you rule out the conspiracy theory that the US has lured Russia into the "Georgian trap", Georgia and its proteges have apparently chosen the wrong strategy altogether.
All in all, this war can be called "a war of miscalculations". Both sides had made a wrong assessment of the situation and miscalculated in their predictions. Georgia to a greater extent and Russia to a lesser extent.
The hope that Russia will be contented with the North Caucasus in exchange for West's non-interference into the war in Chechnya and de-facto encouragement of the real and not propagandistic genocide of the Chechen people has turned out to be baseless.
The West's approval of the invasion of the Chechen state and heinous terror perpetrated by Moscow against the Muslims of the North Caucasus, which had fit right into the context of the fight of the West against Islam, multiplied by abundant downpour of petrodollars, have awakened Moscow's imperial instinct.
Let me remind that as far back as 1999 and 2000 the Chechen leadership was warning Georgia and Azerbaijan that after putting an end to Ichkeria's sovereignty, Russia would inevitably commit an aggression against them. Nevertheless neither Tbilisi nor Baku were willing to face the obvious fact that throughout all these years the Chechen state and the Chechen people were as a protective wall for the South Caucasus rescuing their independence.
Both Baku and Tbilisi had time to make their states stronger. But instead of gratitude and help, throughout all these years we have been under undisguised pressure from both Georgian and Azerbaijani authorities, which at times would turn into outright anti-Chechen and anti-Islamic terror to please Russia.
In both Georgia and Azerbaijan, for the sake of momentary political interests, Chechens, Dagestanis, or any of the Muslims who could one way or another have anything to do or who had any ties with the Mujahideen, were being kidnapped and handed over to Moscow. In Azerbaijan this disgraceful practice is still continuing, in hope for getting Russia's benevolence.
Chechen fighters were forced out of Pankisi, even though the CRI government (Chechen Republic of Ichkeria) offered Tbilisi to "legitimize" them by giving them the status of police units. Georgian authorities did not understand. The Mujahideen then would not go for any aggravation of tensions and left.
I am reminding about it in order to stress once again that the strategy chosen by Tbilisi had been wrong from the outset. The key to security in the South Caucasus lies in the North Caucasus. Today it has become clear with all of its slashing obviousness. Baku should ponder about it as well.
The five-day Russian-Georgian war has revealed a few things that are clear. Namely:
The threat to security and stability in the South Caucasus will remain until the North Caucasus is not deoccupied. Unless the Russian troops are driven out of the occupied territories of the Caucasus Emirate, the issue of stability and predictability in the region will remain unsolved.
Thus, without the solution of the issue of liberation of the North Caucasus the issue of sovereignty and stability of the South Caucasus can never be solved.
The statement made by the military command of the Caucasus Emirate concerning Russia's aggression against Georgia clearly points at the position of the Caucasus Emirate, which shows that the key prerequisite for stability, safety, peace and predictability in the Caucasus is the unconditional expulsion of Russia as the key destabilizing force in the region and an absolutely hostile element for the nations of the Caucasus.
The context of the position stated is that the vector of force of the Mujahideen of the Caucasus Emirate is pointing to the North.
We are not offering anything to anybody. We are only stating the apparent facts, which would be at least odd to ignore.
Mujahideen of the Caucasus Emirate have proven their self-sufficiency. We are not going to play anybody's games, we have our own interests and our own objectives. Regardless of the way the events will be unfolding, the Mujahideen of the Caucasus Emirate will keep sticking to chosen strategy. Still, it would be unwise not to take tactical conditions into consideration.
Nor can one omit the fact that with all of its malice and aggressiveness, Russia has demonstrated its indecision. The war has shown not the frontiers of NATO's advancement, which the Kremlin's political technologists are trying to suggest with the victorious blares of TV fanfares playing in the background, as much as it has shown the frontiers of the advancement of Russia.
Even the impermissibly lackadaisical yet consolidated position of the West headed by the US has prevented the invasion of Tbilisi and overthrow of the democratic regime of Saakashvili.
Moreover, Russia's military invasion of Georgia, which was being prepared thoroughly and for quite a long time, as it has become clear now, (even though the storm of Tskhinvali was apparently sudden for the Kremlin), will most likely result in Georgia's and Ukraine's fast-track admission into NATO, which Moscow was in every way trying to prevent from happening.
Here are some brief conclusions:
- Russia has proven to be an unreliable partner. The Western alliance has had another classical "Russian lesson" that reminded them of the long-forgotten axiom: under any regimes in the Kremlin Russians can never be trusted.
- The configuration of forces and the political situation in the Caucasus have changed. The final alignment of forces and political priorities for all parties of the conflict as well as interested parties will become clear in the nearest future.
- The threat to security in the South Caucasus will be remaining until the North Caucasus is deoccupied. Without the solution of issue of liberation of the North Caucasus the issue of sovereignty, stability and security of the South Caucasus can never be solved.
- With all of its bloodthirstiness and aggressiveness Russia has shown its weakness and indecision by "not finishing off the enemy". Unlike the Stalin regime, the present-day Kremlin regime has something to lose (in the West) in case of isolation and aggravation of the confrontation with the Western alliance headed by the US.
- Up until now it is unclear how ready the West is for radical solution of providing security in the South Caucasus, which can not be done just geographically with the Caucasus Mountain Range alone.
- Moscow's determination and scamming will be directly proportional to indecision and dissociation in the West.
- So far the issue of winners and losers in the Russian-Georgian war has not been solved."
Kavkaz Center
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